An Unproven Assumption

One of the assumed benefits of the proposed two-state solution is that the creation of a Palestinian state will finally make the Palestinians fully accountable for their actions. Thus, any acts of aggression from the new entity against Israel will be considered an attack on Israel from a sovereign country rather than from a terrorist organization. Moreover it is this distinction, so we are told, that will not only allow Israel to forcefully respond to any acts of Palestinian aggression but will allow it to do so with the full support and understanding of the international community.

Although such a line of reasoning sounds very enticing and has even managed to win over some former skeptics, personally I don’t buy it. In fact, a quick survey of the last twenty years seems to indicate otherwise.

At the height of the Gulf War in 1991, Iraq began launching scud missiles at Israel in an attempt to draw Israel into the conflict. This was a classic case of a sovereign Arab country not only attacking Israel with powerfully destructive missiles but attacking it in some of its most populous regions. Nonetheless, despite the numerous missiles that landed in Israel, due to various geopolitical considerations and behind-the-door pressure Israel did not respond.

 Roughly ten years later Israel speedily removed all of its troops from southern Lebanon. At the time we were promised that Israeli positions would be taken over by the South Lebanese Army (SLA) in order to prevent Hezbollah from stationing themselves within spitball range of Israel’s northern border. In addition, we were assured by then Prime Minister Ehud Barak that should Hezbollah ever commit an act of aggression against Israel our response would be very painful.

Like usual Israel fulfilled its side of the agreement while the Arabs failed to uphold their part. As a result, rather than having the SLA parked across the border we received Hezbollah. This change of events afforded Hezbollah the opportunity to closely watch our troop movements, something they quickly cashed in on. After a mere few months of up-close surveillance, one day they dashed across the border and kidnapped three Israeli soldiers.

However, despite our hard-earned justification to retaliate to such an unprovoked act of aggression and even the prime minister’s own guarantee to respond with might in such a situation, in the end we did very little. Thus, the promises meant nothing and unfortunately the kidnapped soldiers were eventually killed.

Five years after the tragic kidnappings in Lebanon, Israel removed all Jewish presence from Gaza. At the time we were told that the removal of Israeli troops from Gaza would shift the burden of accountability to the Palestinian Authority thereby forcing it to reign in the various terrorist organizations. This, like every other promised benefit, turned out to be false as attacks against Israel only increased.

Although it’s true that Israel did eventually reenter Gaza at the end of 2008 as part of Operation Cast Lead, incredulously this happened only after thousands of missiles were fired at Jewish communities close to the Gaza border. Moreover, the promised admiration of the world we supposedly were to acquire following our unilateral pullout, quickly melted away as many in the international community hypocritically condemned Israel for its actions in Gaza.

Although it is true that there were times when Israel responded forcefully to cross-border attacks, such as in the Second Lebanon War, the growing trend through the years has been for a limited Israeli response or total restraint. Moreover, rather than winning the world’s approval based upon our polite and considerate behavior, this trend has been accompanied by the growth of an increasingly hostile anti-Israel environment throughout the world.

This being the case, why should we believe that Israel will act any differently this time around? It is far more plausible to assume that acts of aggression emanating from a Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria will be met with the usual limited Israeli response. Moreover, even in the rare instance where Israel responds more forcefully, it is safe to assume that the world will quickly condemn Israel regardless of the circumstances.

In light of the above, how on earth can we use an unproven assumption as the basis for severely weakening our national security, something which is sure to happen if a Palestinian state is created in Judea and Samaria? It’s absolute madness.

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12 Responses to An Unproven Assumption

  1. David says:

    Personally my opinion: with the new unity Gov. the Pals… Fatah, which agreed to form a unity Gov. with the Hamas out of Gaza, will not in the end, end up to turn out to be in their favor. The Int. Community will quickly see the new Gov. as Terrorist Gov. and as a result will not succeed this Sept. when they go to the UN to self establish themselves as an official Pal… State, and they will then start another Intifada (but one like Israel neighbors Egypt, and Syria with the intention to have those demonstrations pass into Israel) as a result, blaming the Int. community and Israel for their actions and I think that is exactly what they and the backed sponsored terrorist regimes, e.g. Iran, Syria… really want, they do not want to have a state but to rather do what they have been doing until now and continue their sponsored terrorism with their attempt to try to destroy Israel bit by bit as they have been attempting to do thus-far, I guess they did not realize that the Int. community would support them, and then they would have their State which they so whanted to have for all these years, and then what would they do with the terrorism, so they quickly decided to put another stall, whether the stall is with Israel or the Int. Community, they really do not want to have a state, what they really want is the destruction of Israel.

    • David says:

      Just as noted above, it is starting with Lieberman: World should not recognize new Palestinian government “The international community must not legitimize the government whose face is the face of (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas) and whose arms are the arms of Hamas, who launches missiles at citizens and stains innocents with blood,”

      Source: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/lieberman-world-should-not-recognize-new-palestinian-government-1.358879?localLinksEnabled=false

      • Yoel Meltzer says:

        David shalom,

        Thanks for you comments. Personally I don’t have too much faith in the international community. Also, as I try to repeatedly touch upon in my writings, the core of the problem is not with the world but rather with the Jewish people themselves. In a nutshell, the Jews (especially in Israel) need to fully understand who we are and what is our purpose in this world (once again, specifically in the Land of Israel). Without this clear understanding we exude confusion and lack of certainty which in turn brings on all the troubles.

        I’m obviously not against having support from the world, but for me it’s not the main issue. The real problem, which I’m trying to do my small part to correct, is the confused mindset of my own people.

        All the best.

        Yoel

        • David says:

          I see your point Yoel, and after reflecting I can say that I agree 100% with you. Keep up the good work.

          Perhaps you should write more on this topic “the core of the problem is not with the world but rather with the Jewish people themselves”

          • Yoel Meltzer says:

            David shalom,

            Thanks for your encouragement. FYI, I have touched upon this theme in various articles. For example, see “Towards a Jewish Mindset” (point 16) or “The Jewish Idea”. Both of these articles appear on the blog under “Articles-Ynet”.

            Yoel

      • David says:

        Here is another source “Middle East analyst Barak Seener comments on the repercussions that a Hamas-Fatah unity will have for Israel”

        Seener asserts that a unity between Hamas and Fatah will ultimately harm the Palestinians since the international community will not accept a government which explicitly calls for the destruction of the State of Israel. In addition to this, Hamas has what Seener terms a “genocidal agenda,” making peace with Israel impossible.

        Link: http://www.jpost.com/VideoArticles/Video/Article.aspx?ID=218336&R=R1

        • Yoel Meltzer says:

          Thanks for the link David. I’ll check it out.

          By the way, I did an interview with an Arab dissident (published as “An Interview with an Arab Dissident” – see “Articles-American Thinker”) and in it a very honest Arab from Jordan also states the danger of the current 2-state solution.

          Yoel

    • David says:

      And so it begins… Security forces on high alert ahead of ‘Nakba Day’ as Palestinians: Prepare for 3rd intifada

      “The organizers of the “return procession” said they have completed all the necessary preparations ahead of Sunday’s march in the Gaza Strip. In a conversation with Ynet, Ahmad Najar, one of the procession’s organizers, said he was optimistic vis-à-vis the march’s chances of success.

      “I foresee some quarter of a million people participating in Sunday’s march from Gaza City toward Beit Hanoun (Erez Crossing),” he said.

      We have one goal – to continue to march and pass through the border crossing back to our lands peacefully,” he said.

      According to the organizers, the event will consist of four stages – the first is a “sit-down strike” that will begin on Sunday, during which Palestinian refugees from Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, the West Bank and Gaza will gather in locations nearest to the border with Israel. These strikes will continue as long as necessary – and may last up to several weeks and even months.

      The second phase is dubbed “the advance,” in which refugees will proceed peacefully toward the border, as much as they are allowed. In the third phase, referred to as “crossing,” the refugees will cross the border and respond in restraint to any attempt to crack-down on the procession.

      The fourth and final stage will begin when each refugee reaches their original place of residence, or the nearest location to it, at which time a second sit-down strike resume, until they are allowed to return to their plot of land.”
      http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4068029,00.html

      http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4068049,00.html

  2. Canadian Otter says:

    The above is not a list of leadership miscalculations but one that hints at deception. It’s not believable that seasoned politicians can be that naïve.

    Perhaps the reason Israel is in such dire situation right now is not all due to a weakened Zionist spirit or insufficient awareness of the Jewish purpose on the land – although they are both real problems. The real reasons have more to do with the excessive influence the financial and cultural elite has on government institutions.

    DAVID BEDEIN has been disclosing some rather shocking facts on Israel National Radio and giving clear hints as to why all Israeli governments behave the way they do. (April 14 show.) http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Radio/Author.aspx/4286

    Bedein has focused on government inaction regarding vicious anti-Semitism and incitement on PA TV and textbooks. This has been going on for decades and yet no Israeli government has dared to confront the PA. It even rents airwaves for the PA to broadcast its racist and inciteful programming.

    LEE KAPLAN of Stop the ISM has expressed the same kind of frustration as Bedein. He also briefed ministers on the ISM on more than one occasion and provided details that could have helped Israeli intelligence reduce ISM activities in Israel. But to no avail. It’s as if they don’t want to hear it. http://www.stoptheism.com/

    An unarmed praying Jew, Ben-Yosef Livnat, was murdered by PA police recently. The Israeli government and IDF characterized the killing as an “incident” and did not even try to pursue the murderers. Most of the sympathetic media focused on lack of proper access to holy sites, but failed to notice the significant government and IDF disregard and disrespect for Livnat’s loss of life.

    The financial elite in Israel is carrying on very lively and profitable trade relations with the PA – the same PA that murders Jewish men, women and babies and then honors and rewards their killers. According to Bedein this trade is worth more than US$5 billion a year. There are several Israeli-PA organizations promoting PA economic development, and some of their members also serve in the Israeli government.

    From today’s headlines – an illustration. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4059848,00.html

    An Israeli businessman worries about repercussions if Israel does not to partition the country, particularly after the upcoming PA’s declaration of independence. “There will be economic sanctions against Israel and I don’t know how to deal with it. What happened in South Africa could happen here too: The economy crashed, companies failed to recover and money was smuggled out. “

    So, as you see, Yoel, just as Wall Street didn’t mind harming the economy and honest individual investors as long as their investment gamblers were making profits, Israelis trading with the PA-Gaza put concerns for the future of their country aside as they need good relations with the Arabs in order to maximize their profits now. At any cost to Israel and the Jews.

    • Yoel Meltzer says:

      Canadian Otter shalom,

      Thanks for your comments. I agree that it’s not just people being naive or unaware of our true reason for being here (although that certainly is a big part of the problem). I’ve recently been thinking about the socio-economic problems here and how that certainly is part of the problem.

      On the one hand, frequently there is a lack of care and consideration for others. Although there are plenty of great people here, unfortunately there are many that have been infected with the “me” disease and only think about what is good for them with little or no regard for the larger public. There is also for many here an overkill with the consumer mentality/materialism. It’s very sad that the gap between the “haves” and the ‘have-nots” in Israel is one of the largest in the western world. The Jewish Sages spoke a lot about the great value of “histapkut” which means being satisfied with what you have. Unfortunately, for many here they want more and more and more (more money, more gadgets in their homes, more trips abroad, etc, etc, etc). Obviously such things are not bad if you keep them in perspective. However, if they become central values in your mindset then that is a tremendous problem.

      So you’re right, these other issues certainly play a role in the problems here.

      All the best.

      Yoel

  3. Canadian Otter says:

    It’s sad to hear about this increasing materialism, Yoel. But Israel can overcome that, as well as other social problems. What it cannot survive is the strong influence of the powerful elite pushing government to make ever increasing concessions to the Arabs in order to improve – in their estimation – the country’s image abroad.

    The influence of Big Business is huge in the US too, as we all know. They asked US Congress and the president to give them incredible amounts of money with no questions asked. And Congress and the president obliged.

    There have been several insidious forces behind the government’s refusal to annex the land, and every act of retreat since 1967 – but Israeli big business may have had quite a significant role in the past decades. A hostile international climate that includes divestments and boycotts is bad for profits.

    While the extreme left has been busily at work trying to weaken Israel for ideological reasons, the financial elite just wants an easy ride into profits in the short term – and at any cost.

    Once the PA declares independence there may be some noise and empty threats on the part of politicians, but it will all be an act. The government will acquiesce to the UN demand for full withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines.

    Once that is accomplished, the UN will subsequently push for a withdrawal to the 1947 lines (that’s what D. Bedein fears).

    It’s really unfortunate that those against partition are so unorganized. This is the time to push for annexation, no matter what the consequences. Even if it’s bad for business.

    Thank you, Yoel, for a really excellent column and the way you summarized all those facts .

  4. David says:

    “Dear President Obama,

    I am writing today with a somewhat unusual request. First and foremost, I am asking that you return America to its August 20th, 1959 borders so that Hawaii is no longer a state and you are no longer a citizen.”

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